TITLE OF THESIS: Selection Of Scientific Indicators For Tracking, Understanding, And Communicating Climate Change In Prince Edward Island, Canada

Date: Tuesday, August 11th, 1:00 pm

ABSTRACT

The objective of this thesis is to develop a suite of scientific indicators for tracking, understanding, and communicating climate change in the 3 major economic sectors in PEI, including agriculture, fisheries, and  tourism, and the general public as a fourth group. The process for the selection of scientific indicators for PEI was conducted by (1) a literature review through examination of scientific papers and government documents, (2) a public survey, and (3) statistical analysis of survey results. Climate indicators selected in other coastal environment jurisdictions, with similar climatic patterns, and from research papers in the sectors of interest were first reviewed for their suitability in the context of PEI. A total of 127 potential indicators were compiled from the literature review and screened, using 6 criteria: relevance, traceability, timeliness, data adequacy, representative data, and relevance to PEI. The characteristics of each selected climate indicator are discussed to reflect what the indicator measures, why it is important, and what factors influence the indicator. Technical considerations that support the reliability and understanding of each climate indicator are discussed, including the strengths and limitations of available data, as well as complementary graphs, maps, and other visual techniques. The selected climate indicators intersect with at least one of the chosen sectors or the general public and have adequate data available to be calculated on a timely basis. Preference was given to indicators that provide climate tracking information to more than one sector in an effort to reduce the overall number of those selected. Climate indicators not applicable to local PEI conditions by not demonstrating local climate change effects over time were screened out.

A public survey was used to obtain input from  the economic sectors of  agricultural, fishery, tourism, and the general public to enable selection of the most useful climate indicators for these major sectors of the Prince Edward Island economy and the general public. For the survey, one hundred and three (n=103) individuals completed the survey allowing the evaluation of 23 unique indicators on a score from 0 to 5 depending on their perceived importance (with 5 being the highest importance). The public survey results were statistically analyzed to assess the value and importance of each climate indicator to each economic sector. Climate change was considered an important issue by over 98% of all evaluators. The top 5 scoring climate change indicators in terms of importance included extreme precipitation events, sea level rise, drought periods, extreme wind events, and seasonal temperature change. As expected, some indicators were found to be more important to some sectors than others. For example, sea level rise was rated more important by the fishery and tourism sectors and less important by the farming sector.

A list of 19 indicators was further refined by completion of a feasibility assessment using 5 evaluation criteria resulting in shortened list of 11 climate change indicators.  Any of the 8 other indicators can also be included if commitments for funding, monitoring, tracking and analysis can be identified from one or more organizations.

The presentation and examination will be presented via a web conference. Please RSVP to the Graduate Studies Coordinator at gsc@upei.ca for the information to connect if you wish to attend.